Binciken Macro na ITLX & Kasuwa

Farkon - Oktoba 2025 Ra'ayin Kasuwa: Ruwan Sha yana Numfashi, Crypto Reacts

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Takaitaccen Bayani na Babban Jami'i

Yayin da kasuwannin duniya ke tafiya a farkon matakan rufewar gwamnatin Amurka da kuma canza labaran babban bankin, watan Oktoba ya gabatar da daidaito mai wuya na rage darajar kuɗi, laushin dala, da kuma dawo da kuɗin ruwa na ɗan lokaci. Muna riƙe da matsayi mai ƙarfi a kan kadarorin crypto har zuwa ƙarshen watan Oktoba, wanda ƙarfin BTC, daidaita ETH, da kuma kwararar juyawa zuwa SOL suka jagoranta.

Katsewar kwararar bayanai daga rufewar Amurka ba abu ne mai sauƙi ba: tare da manyan hukumomin tarayya da ke dakatar da fitarwa, rashin daidaiton bayanai da kansa ya zama sigina, yana tilasta kasuwanni su dogara ga ma'auni masu zaman kansu da kuma nazarin samfuri. A cikin kimantawarmu, wannan rashin daidaiton bayanai yana ƙara nuna son kai ga ƙananan mutane kuma yana ƙara yiwuwar rage saurin Fed kafin lalacewar kasuwar aiki ta zama ba ta layi ba.

1. Macro Backdrop: Manufofi, Bayanai, da Fahimta

Rufewar gwamnatin Amurka na wani ɓangare, wanda yanzu ya kai mako na biyu, ya dakatar da ayyukan bayanai a Ofishin Kididdiga na Ma'aikata (BLS) da Ofishin Nazarin Tattalin Arziki (BEA).

Saboda haka, za a jinkirta muhimman bayanai na manyan ma'auni - Albashin da Ba na Gona ba (NFP), CPI, da kuma sake fasalin GDP - wanda hakan zai takaita yawan yanke shawara da Babban Bankin Tarayya ke yi.

Ba tare da jajircewa daga hukuma ba, masu zuba jari suna sake daidaita kansu ta hanyar wakilai masu zaman kansu kamar su aikin yi na ADP da PMIs na yankuna. Sabon fitowar ADP ya nuna kusan babu wani tsari na samar da ayyukan yi na masu zaman kansu, wanda hakan ya nuna raguwar saurin aiki tun farkon 2023 (duba Jadawali na 1).

Wannan raguwar farashin ya biyo bayan raguwar da aka samu a cikin shekaru uku daga ribar da ta kai dala miliyan daya da rabi a kowane wata na 2021, wanda ke nuna cewa ma'aikata sun yi sanyi wanda ya yi daidai da dabarun Phillips-curve: ɗaukar ma'aikata mai laushi yana rage haɗarin hauhawar farashin da albashi ke haifarwa a cikin jinkirin watanni 6-10, yana ba wa Fed zaɓi don rage farashi ba tare da sanya daidaiton farashi cikin haɗari ba.

Jadawali na 1: Canjin Wata-wata a Aikin Yi na Masu Zaman Kansu na Amurka (ADP, 2021–2025). Bayanan ADP sun nuna ƙarancin ƙirƙirar ayyukan yi a gefen, daidai da raguwar lokaci-lokaci.

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Matsakaici tsakanin rashin samun bayanai da raguwar aiki yana haifar da rashin tsari, yanayin da rashin bayanai ke ƙarfafa kasancewar sassauci. A tarihi, irin waɗannan abubuwan (misali, ɓoye bayanai na 2013) sun zo daidai da allurar ruwa na ɗan lokaci yayin da masu tsara manufofi ke fifita rage haɗari fiye da tsaurara daidaito.

2. Ruwan Ruwa: Daga Injin Tsafta zuwa Gudawa

Tsarin ruwa na watan Satumba ya lalace ta hanyar haɗuwar magudanar ruwa ta wucin gadi:

• Ma'aikatar Baitulmalin Amurka ta sake gina Asusunta na Janar (TGA), inda ta kai adadin da aka sa ran za ta kai sama da dala biliyan 800;
  
• Rarrabawar kwatar-kwata da ƙarshen wata ta ƙara tsaurara hanyoyin haɗin gwiwa;
  
• Token2049 Singapore ta ƙirƙiri wani yanki na "rashin ruwa na taron", yayin da masu samar da kasuwa suka sake daidaita kansu na ɗan lokaci daga matsayin sarkar.

Da waɗannan magudanan ruwa suka kammala, watan Oktoba zai fara da ci gaban tsarin ruwa a bayyane a cikin ƙimar haɗarin kadarori da zurfin kasuwar crypto. Canjin watanni 3 na jujjuyawar jimillar M2 na duniya ya zama mai kyau a watan Satumba a karon farko tun watan Afrilu, kuma amfani da kayan aikin ajiyar kaya na Amurka ya ragu da sama da dala biliyan 100 - duka suna nuna sake faɗaɗa ruwa a matakin farko.

Wannan sassaucin injiniyanci yana kafa tushen tallafi ga crypto, wanda ya kasance ɗaya daga cikin azuzuwan kadarorin da suka fi saurin samun kuɗi. A tarihi, canje-canje na wata 1 a cikin M2 na duniya yana da alaƙa da saurin farashin BTC a ~0.7 R² akan jinkiri.

3. Aikin Manufofin Fed: Rage Inshora da Rage Farashin Kasuwa

Jadawali na 2: Yiwuwar Rage Rage Kuɗin 25bp Biyu Zuwa Ƙarshen Shekara (Fed Funds Futures). Kasuwa yanzu farashin ya kai kashi 87% na jimlar ragewar 50bp nan da Disamba.

Gabatarwar Fed Funds na nufin yiwuwar rage darajar kuɗi sau biyu a cikin 25bp a ƙarshen shekara da kashi 87%, wanda zai haɗa da kusan kashi 3.50-3.75% na maƙasudin nan da Disamba. Wannan ramawa yana nuna canji daga labarin ƙarshen bazara na "mafi girma zuwa tsawon lokaci" zuwa "sauƙaƙawa a matsayin inshora", matsayin manufofi wanda ke fifita kwanciyar hankali fiye da tsarin hauhawar farashin kaya.

A halin yanzu, ma'aunin dala na Amurka (DXY) ya ragu da ~3.5% daga kololuwar watan Satumba, yayin da zinare ya kai sabon matsayi a tarihi, wanda ke nuna ƙarancin tsarin farashi na gaske da kuma sabon juyi na darajar kayayyaki (Chart 3).

Jadawali na 3: Zinare da DXY - Bambancin Ra'ayi da Daidaito a Farashin Gaske. Karuwar Zinare akan raguwar darajar USD ya yi daidai da raguwar tsammanin farashin gaske.

A cikin macro, wannan yana ƙirƙirar biyun tailwind don crypto:

• Yanayin kuɗi mai sauƙi na USD yana rage farashin riƙe kadarorin da ba su da riba kamar BTC da ETH.
• Ra'ayin sake fasalin farashi yana haifar da sake matsar da fayil zuwa kadarorin dijital a matsayin shingen hauhawar farashi da madadin hanyoyin samar da riba ta hanyar DeFi.

4. Tsarin Kasuwa: Tsarin Matsayi da Zurfin Bincike

4.1 Bitcoin (BTC)

BTC ta kasance babbar hanyar samar da kuɗi a cikin hadaddun crypto. Bayanan oda na ƙarshen Satumba sun nuna koma baya a cikin rashin daidaiton kasuwa: matsakaicin adadin siye ya kai dala miliyan 56 a kowace rana, wanda ya zarce adadin siye na dala miliyan 42 a kowace rana, wanda ya nuna raguwar riba ta farko tun watan Yuli.

Rabon samar da mai riƙewa na dogon lokaci (LTH) idan aka kwatanta da rabon samar da mai riƙewa na ɗan gajeren lokaci (STH) ya kasance mai karko, wanda ke nuna matsayin hasashe mara yawa. Wannan yana nuna cewa matakin ƙimar BTC na yanzu yana da goyon baya ta tsarin tsari, maimakon kawai an samo shi ne daga tushe.

4.2 Ethereum (ETH)

Zurfin kasuwar ETH ya daidaita a watan Satumba, inda aka kiyasta dala miliyan 19 a kowace gefe cikin ±5% na matsakaicin farashi—sama da mummunan bayanin watan Agusta wanda siyayyar Asusun Tallafin Kayayyaki na Dijital (DAT) ta jagoranta.

Ribar da ba ta ƙarewa ba ta ragu sosai (~8–10%), tana nuna matsi na haɗari maimakon fitar da kaya. Mun fassara wannan a matsayin daidaitaccen tsari mai kyau, muna sanya ETH don faɗaɗa canjin yanayi da zarar abubuwan da ke haifar da ruwa sun bayyana.

4.3 Solana (SOL)

Gudun ruwa na Spot SOL ya ga ƙaruwa mai yawa, wanda galibi ya danganta da sabbin tsarin DAT da aka keɓe ga SOL - juyin halittar tsarin da ke kwaikwayon tsarin "taskar jigo" wanda aka fara gani a 2024 ga ETH.

Waɗannan taskokin suna wakiltar masu rabawa na matakin cibiyoyi waɗanda ke neman fa'idodin amfani da albarkatu masu kyau a cikin tsarin SOL, wanda ke nuna alamar farko ta bambancin jarin muhalli.

5. Abubuwan da aka samo da kuma Hadarin Tsarin: Babban Ribar Altcoin

Jadawali na 4: Rabon Dogon Lokaci na Altcoin OI (2022–2025). Rabon ya kasance sama da 1.4x—a tarihi, wani abu ne da ke gaba wajen rage abubuwan da suka faru.

Duk da cewa an tilasta wa kamfanonin fitar da man fetur na dala biliyan 1.8 a makon ƙarshe na watan Satumba, rabon Dominance na Altcoin Open Interest (OI) ya ci gaba da hauhawa sama da 1.4x - a tarihi, matsakaicin matsin lamba kafin raguwar kasuwa.

Wannan rashin daidaito mai dorewa yana nuna rauni a cikin sassan kasuwa masu yawan beta, musamman inda ƙimar kuɗi na dindindin ta kasance mai kyau amma matsayin hasashe ya wuce zurfin ruwa.

Tsarinmu ya yi wa wannan tsarin alama da "mai rauni mai ƙarfi" - inda juzu'i ke ci gaba a ƙarƙashin ƙarfin aiki, amma girgizar ruwa mai yawa na iya haifar da juyawar matsakaici cikin sauri. Saboda haka, fallasa da aka daidaita da haɗari yana fifita nauyin BTC da ETH yayin da yake riƙe da ƙarancin nauyin altcoin har sai rabon OI ya daidaita zuwa 1.0-1.2x.

6. Mahangar Kadara Mai Zurfi: Alaƙa da Siginar Mulki

Tun farkon watan Satumba, alaƙar crypto-beta da ainihin ƙimar (ƙimar 10Y TIPS) ta koma -0.68, daidai da matakan sassauci na tarihi (2020–2021).

A halin yanzu, alaƙar da ke tsakanin BTC da Zinare ta tashi zuwa 0.72—mafi girma a cikin watanni 18—wanda ke nuna sabunta haɗin gwiwar ma'ajiyar darajar.

Sabanin haka, alaƙar hannun jari (BTC–NASDAQ) ta faɗi ƙasa da 0.35, wanda ke nuna raguwar ɓangaren crypto daga haɗarin hannun jari a tsakanin juyawar macro.

7. Hasashen Gaba: Daga Tawagar Dabaru zuwa Juyawa Tsarin

Tsarin crypto na ɗan lokaci yana ci gaba da aiki har zuwa Oktoba:

• Ma'aunin matsin lamba daga ƙarancin USD da kuma rage girman kai ya ci gaba da raguwa.
  
• Matsi na ruwa ya koma baya, kuma zurfin kasuwa yana inganta.
• Matsayin BTC ya kasance matsakaici, yana ba da damar ci gaba.

Duk da haka, watan Nuwamba yana gabatar da sabbin matsaloli:

• Matsalolin kasafin kuɗi na iya tsawaita, wanda ke takaita bayyananniyar manufofi.
  
• Fitar da kuɗi zai iya rage yawan kuɗin da ake kashewa idan aka ɗage rufin gibin.
  
• Amfanin Altcoin ya kasance sama da matakin jin daɗi.
  

Saboda haka, muna tsammanin samun riba daga BTC zuwa tsakiyar watan Nuwamba, sannan kuma haɗakar kuɗi yayin da iskar ruwa ke shuɗewa. Ga masu raba kuɗi, wannan yana wakiltar taga mafi kyau don matsayi na juyawa - yana tara fallasa BTC da ETH yayin da yake kawar da haɗarin matsayin altcoin marasa amfani.

8. Takaitaccen Teburi: Mahimmancin Macro-Crypto na Oktoba 2025

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Kammalawa

Yanayin watan Oktoba yana ɗaya daga cikin yanayin canjin kuɗi - lokaci ne da ake samun sauƙin tsammanin macro, rashin haske game da bayanai, da kuma tsarin crypto wanda ke daidaita don ƙara yawan farashi.

Jagorancin BTC ya bayyana a fili; ETH yana shirin sake haɓaka tsarin; kuma SOL yana wakiltar farkon gwajin cibiyoyi a cikin bambance-bambancen Layer-1.

Duk da haka, altcoins suna ci gaba da kasancewa fasinjoji masu rauni a kan raƙuman ruwa masu canzawa.

Babban labarin abu ne mai sauƙi: lokacin da ruwa ke numfashi, crypto yana amsawa. Amma darasin ya kasance na fasaha - dorewa ya dogara da tsari.